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技术面及基本面分析

投资笔记#3: 基本面分析常用估值指标

巴菲特曾经说过,买股票就是买公司。这句话是从投资的角度去理解的。也就是说买股票要买基 本面优良,有业绩支撑的股票。那么要对一家上市公司的基本面进行分析的一些常见估值指标有 哪些?

简单来说,对公司的基本面进行分析的原因是:随着时间的延续,上市公司的股票价格走势将与 公司的业务增长相匹配,若公司业绩持续增长,那么股价在较长的时间跨度内会处于上涨的趋势 ,反之则会下跌。但是投资者需要注意的地方是:基本面分析可以诠释股票的长期走势,但是中短 期内股票价格的上下波动是由其他短期因素决定的,例如技术面分析和图形强弱以及市场流动 性等因素,这是基本面分析无法解释的。

适用范围:市盈率是最常用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一。通常适用于基本面比较稳健, 历史业绩优良,红利优厚的股票,比如道琼斯指数里面的成份股迪士尼,美国运通,麦当劳,家得 宝等公司,A股里面的中国联通,海螺水泥,万科等公司。而中小科技股和题材股这一类股票,由 于每年业绩和增速变化很大,市盈率并不能很好的反应未来的情况,所以需要用到其他指标进行 分析。

市净率 (PB)= 每股股价/每股净资产,一般适用于周期性行业,且有大量固定资产。

适用范围:市净率计算方式里面的每股净资产的多少是由公司经营状况决定的,公司的经营业绩 越好,其资产增值越快,股票价值就越高,因此股东所拥有的权益也越多。适合使用市净率的股 票主要是资产占比比较大的企业。比如能源,工业,原材料等资源类的企业。轻资产的企业就不 太适用市净率,比如科技股和成长股,这些公司市净率会很高,没有参考意义。在同一行业中, 市净率越低的股票下跌空间更小些,安全系数会高些。

市销率(PS)技术面及基本面分析 = 每股股价/每股销售额,一般适用于快速成长的科技类或研发类公司。 计算方式:市净率=每股股价/每股销售额

适用范围:一般来说,对于业绩增速高的企业,市销率越低,说明该公司股票目前的投资价值越 大。市销率适用于现金流为关键指标的企业。比如以GMV作为关键指标的电商企业和还没有盈 利的流媒体公司等就可以关注市销率。市销率如果太高,说明市场对于这家公司的预期很高,给 技术面及基本面分析 的估值也很高,但需要业绩和增速去消化高估值。

在英语中翻译"基本面"

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The main content of fundamental analysis

The so-called fundamentals refer to the status of some basic factors that affect the trend of the stock market. Through the analysis of the fundamentals, the basic factors that determine the changes in stock prices can be grasped, which is the basis of stock investment analysis.

Fundamental factors mainly include:

1. Macroeconomic conditions

From along-term and fundamental point of view, the trend and changes of the stock market are determined by the level of economic development and economic prosperity of a country. Stock market price fluctuations also reflect changes in 技术面及基本面分析 macroeconomic conditions to a large extent. It is not difficult to find from the historical trend of foreign stock markets that the trend of stock market changes 技术面及基本面分析 generally coincides with the economic cycle. During the economic boom, companies are operating well, making more profits, and their stock prices are rising. When the economy is in a recession, the decline in 技术面及基本面分析 corporate income and the decline in profits will also cause its stock prices to continue to fall. However, the trend of the stock market and the economic cycle are not the same in terms of time. Generally, the changes in the stock market must be advanced to 技术面及基本面分析 a certain extent, so the stock market 技术面及基本面分析 price is called a barometer of the macro economy.

2. Interest rate level

Among the many factors that affect the trend of the stock market, interest rates are a relatively sensitive factor. Rising interest rates may attract part of the funds to the bank savings system, thereby feeding the amount of funds in the stock market and having a certain impact on stock prices. At the same time, due to rising interest rates, business operating costs will increase, and profits will decrease, which will correspondingly cause stock prices 技术面及基本面分析 to fall. Conversely, if interest rates are lowered, people may invest more funds in the stock market due to their inherent need to maintain and increase their value, thereby stimulating stock prices. At the same time, due to lower interest rates, lower operating costs of enterprises and increased profits have also contributed to rising stock prices.

3. Inflation

This factor has pros and cons to the stock market. It has the effect of stimulating the market 技术面及基本面分析 and depressing the market. However, in general, it does more harm than good, and it will increase the bubble component of the stock market. In the initial stage of inflation, the increase in currency will stimulate production and consumption, and the growth rate will increase the profitability of enterprises, which will promote the rise of stock prices. However, when inflation reaches a certain level, it will push interest rates up, which will cause stock prices to fall.

4. Enterprise quality

For specific individual stocks, the main factor that affects the price level is the inherent quality of the company itself, including a series of factors such as financial status, operating conditions, management level, technical capabilities, marketsize, industry characteristics, and development potential.

5. Political 技术面及基本面分析 技术面及基本面分析 factors

Refers to political reasons that directly or indirectly affect the stock market, such as the international political situation, political events, relations between countries, changes in important political leaders, etc., which will have a huge and sudden impact on stock prices. This is also an important aspect 技术面及基本面分析 that should be considered in the fundamentals.